In chess, there is a consensus among players and theorists that the player who makes the first move (White) has an inherent advantage, albeit not one large enough to win with perfect play. This has been the consensus since at least 1889, when the first World Chess Champion, Wilhelm Steinitz, addressed the issue, although chess has not been solved.
Since 1851, compiled statistics support this view; White consistently slightly more often than Black, usually achieving a between 52 and 56 percent. White's advantage is less significant in blitz games and games between lower-level players, and becomes greater as the level of play rises; however, raising the level of play also increases the percentage of draws. As the standard of play rises, all the way up to top engine level, the number of decisive games approaches zero, and the proportion of White wins among those decisive games approaches 100%.
Some players, including world champions such as José Raúl Capablanca, Emanuel Lasker, Bobby Fischer, and Vladimir Kramnik, have expressed fears of a "draw death" as chess becomes more deeply analyzed, and opening preparation becomes ever more important. To alleviate this danger, Capablanca, Fischer, and Kramnik proposed chess variants to revitalize the game, while Lasker suggested changing how draws and stalemates are scored. Several of these suggestions have been tested with engines: in particular, Larry Kaufman and Arno Nickel's extension of Lasker's idea – scoring being stalemated, bare king, and causing a threefold repetition as quarter-points – shows by far the greatest reduction of draws among the options tested, and Fischer random chess (known today more extensively as Chess960), which obviates preparation by randomising the starting array, has obtained significant uptake at top level.
Some writers have challenged the view that White has an inherent advantage. András Adorján wrote a series of books on the theme that "Black is OK!", arguing that the general perception that White has an advantage is founded more in psychology than reality. Though computer analysis disagrees with his wider claim, it agrees with Adorján that some openings are better than others for Black, and thoughts on the relative strengths of openings have long informed the opening choices in games between top players. Mihai Șubă and others contend that sometimes White's initiative disappears for no apparent reason as a game progresses. The prevalent style of play for Black today is to seek unbalanced, positions with active , rather than merely trying to . Modern writers also argue that Black has certain countervailing advantages. The consensus that White should try to win can be a psychological burden for the White player, who sometimes loses by trying too hard to win. Some openings (i.e. those where Black's moves mirror White's) can lead to situations where moving first is a detriment, for either psychological or objective reasons.
Winning percentages WhitewinsDrawnBlackwinsTotal scorefor White Tournaments1851–1878 45.52% 14.07% 40.41% 52.55% Tournaments1881–1914 36.89% 31.76% 31.35% 52.77% Tournaments1919–1932 36.98% 36.98% 26.04% 55.47% Tournamentsoverall 1851–1932 38.12% 30.56% 31.31% 53.40% New in Chessdatabase 2000 N/A N/A N/A 54.8% World Blitz ChessChampionship 2009 38.96% 26.41% 34.63% 52.16% CEGT chessengines results(40/120) 2009 34.7% 41.3% 24.0% 55.4% Chessgames.comdatabase 2015 37.50% 34.90% 27.60% 54.95% In 1946, W.F. Streeter examined the results of 5,598 games played in 45 international chess tournaments between 1851 and 1932. Also available on DVD (page 167 in "Chess Review 1946" PDF file on DVD). Streeter found that overall White scored 53.4% (W: 38.12; D: 30.56; L: 31.31). White scored 52.55% in 1851–1878 (W:45.52; D: 14.07; L: 40.41), 52.77% in 1881–1914 (W: 36.89; D: 31.76; L: 31.35), and 55.47% in 1919–1932 (W: 36.98; D: 36.98; L: 26.04). Streeter concluded, "It thus appears that it is becoming increasingly difficult to win with Black, but somewhat easier to draw."Streeter stated in the article that of the total of 5,598 games surveyed, White won 2,134, drew 1,711, and lost 1,753. These included 782 games from 7 tournaments beginning with London 1851 and ending with Paris 1878, of which White won 356, drew 110, and lost 316; 3,445 games from 22 tournaments beginning with Berlin 1881 and ending with St. Petersburg 1914, of which White won 1,271, drew 1,094, and lost 1,080; and 1,371 games from 16 tournaments beginning with Berlin 1919 and ending with London 1932, of which White won 507, drew 507, and lost 357.
Two decades later, statistician Arthur M. Stevens concluded in The Blue Book of Charts to Winning Chess, based on a survey of 56,972 master games that he completed in 1967, that White scores 59.1%.Stevens 1969, p. XXIII. Of the 56,972 games Stevens collected, White won 26,445 (46.4%), drew 14,579 (25.6%), and lost 15,948 (28.0%). Id. However, Stevens assembled his games from those that had been published in chess magazines, rather than complete collections of all the games played in particular events.Stevens 1969, p. XIV.
More recent sources indicate that White scores approximately 54 to 56 percent. In 2005, Grandmaster (GM) Jonathan Rowson wrote that "the conventional wisdom is that White begins the game with a small advantage and, holding all other factors constant, scores approximately 56% to Black's 44%".Rowson 2005, p. 193. International Master (IM) John Watson wrote in 1998 that White had scored 56% for most of the 20th century, but that this figure had recently slipped to 55%. The website Chessgames.com holds regularly updated statistics on its games database. As of January 12, 2015, White had won 37.50%, 34.90% were drawn, and Black had won 27.60% out of 739,769 games, resulting in a total White winning percentage of 54.95%.These percentages can be found here:
New In Chess observed in its 2000 Yearbook that of the 731,740 games in its database, White scored 54.8% overall; with the two most popular opening moves, White scored 54.1% in 349,855 games beginning 1.e4 (moving the king's pawn two spaces forward), and 56.1% in 296,200 games beginning 1.d4 (moving the queen's pawn two spaces forward). The main reason that 1.e4 was less effective than 1.d4 was the Sicilian Defence (1.e4 c5), which gave White only a 52.3% score in 145,996 games.A graph similar to that in the 2000 Yearbook can be found at The New in Chess statistics just give the number of games played and White's overall winning percentage without breaking it down into white wins, draws, and black wins. (Since then, 1.e4 e5 has replaced 1.e4 c5 as the top choice among the best players by 2021, due to analytical advances in favour of Black's chances in the Open Game and against them in the Sicilian.)
Statistician Jeff Sonas, in examining data from 266,000 games played between 1994 and 2001, concluded that White scored 54.1767% plus 0.001164 times White's Elo rating advantage, treating White's rating advantage as +390 if it is better than +390, or −460 if it is worse than −460. He found that White's advantage is equivalent to 35 rating points, i.e. if White has a rating 35 points below Black's, each player will have an expected score of 50%. Sonas also found that White's advantage is smaller (53%) in rapid games than in games at a slower ("classical") time control. In the 462 games played at the 2009 World Blitz Chess Championship, White scored only 52.16% (W38.96 D26.41 L34.63).
Other writers conclude that there is a positive correlation between the players' ratings and White's score. According to GM Evgeny Sveshnikov, statistics show that White has no advantage over Black in games between beginners, but "if the players are stronger, White has the lead".Adorján 2004, p. 69 (statement by Sveshnikov dated May 12, 1994). An analysis of the results of games in ChessBase's Mega 2003 database between players with similar Elo ratings, commissioned by GM András Adorján, showed that as the players' ratings went up, the percentage of draws increased, the proportion of decisive games that White won increased, and White's overall winning percentage increased.Adorján 2004, pp. 67–68. For example, taking the highest and lowest of Adorján's rating categories of 1669 games played by the highest-rated players (Elo ratings 2700 and above), White scored 55.7% overall (W26.5 D58.4 L15.2), whereas of 34,924 games played by the lowest-rated players (Elo ratings below 2100), White scored 53.1% overall (W37.0 D32.1 L30.8).Adorján 2004, p. 68. Of the 1669 games played by the highest-rated players, White won 442, drew 974, and lost 253. Of the 34,924 games played by the lowest-rated players, White won 12,700, drew 11,015, and lost 10,579. Adorján also analyzed the results of games played at World Championship matches. Of 755 games played in 34 matches between 1886 and 1990, White won 234 (31.0%), drew 397 (52.6%), and lost 124 (16.4%), for a total white winning percentage of 57.3%.Adorján 2004, p. 154. In the last five matches in Adorján's survey, all between Anatoly Karpov and Garry Kasparov, White won 31 (25.8%), drew 80 (66.7%), and lost 9 (7.5%), for a total white winning percentage of 59.2%. Since then, the draw percentage in World Championship games has increased further; notably, in the World Chess Championship 2018 between Magnus Carlsen and Fabiano Caruana, all classical games were drawn.
GM Larry Kaufman notes that in amateur games, the draw rate is low, but rises above 50% (in classical games) at the master level: in 2017 and 2018, the draw rate of players rated over 2750 surpassed 70%. In top-level correspondence chess (where engine assistance is allowed), the draw rate is much higher. Of 1512 games played in the World Correspondence Championship finals and the Candidates' sections between 2010 and 2013, 82.3% ended in a draw. Since that time, the draw rate in top-level correspondence play has been rising steadily, reaching 97% in 2019. Regarding computer play, Kaufman wrote: "As the level soars past 3000, the percentage of decisive games drops ever closer to zero, while the percentage of White wins among those decisive games approaches 100. This is why engine vs. engine tournaments and rating lists have to use arbitrarily chosen openings (playing each side once) to keep things interesting."Kaufman 2021, p. 206
In 2017 AlphaZero, playing 100 games against Stockfish, won 25 and drew 25 as White, but won 3 and drew 47 as Black.
Drawn with best play