2013 Lower Saxony state election

The 2013 Lower Saxony state election was held on 20 January 2013 to elect the members of the 17th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President David McAllister was defeated. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) formed a government with The Greens which held a slim, one-seat majority. Stephan Weil was subsequently elected Minister-President.

Background The CDU–FDP coalition had governed since the 2003. In the 2008 state election, the SPD under Wolfgang Jüttner lost more than three percentage points, suffering its worst ever result in Lower Saxony. The FDP retained their status as the third strongest party, leading the Greens by just 0.2%. The Left won 7.1 percent of the vote, crossing the electoral threshold and winning seats for the first time.

Most polls taken in early 2012 showed a SPD–Green majority. However, in the lead-up to the election, polls tightened, with the CDU–FDP coalition virtually neck and neck with the SPD–Green coalition. Polling suggested that the FDP's vote could be very close to 5%, which led some officials in the CDU to suggest tactically voting FDP to ensure it met the threshold.

Before the election, the SPD and Greens announced their plan to govern and campaign together. The CDU acted independently of the FDP during the campaign, but sought to continue the incumbent coalition. If a CDU–FDP coalition could not be formed, the CDU stated that the SPD would be their second choice. However, the SPD itself rejected the idea of a grand coalition.

Electoral system The system used was Mixed-member proportional representation. The results in the electoral districts were determined using FPTP and the overall result using the D'Hondt method.

Parties The table below lists parties represented in the 16th Landtag of Lower Saxony. Name Ideology Leader(s) 2008 result Votes (%) Seats CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christian democracy David McAllister 42.5% SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany Social democracy Stephan Weil 30.3% FDP Free Democratic Party Classical liberalism Stefan Birkner 8.2% Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens Green politics Anja PielStefan Wenzel 8.0% Linke The Left Democratic socialism Manfred Sohn 7.1%

Opinion polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize CDU SPD FDP Grüne Linke Piraten Others Lead 2013 state election 20 Jan 2013 – 36.0 32.6 9.9 13.7 3.1 2.1 2.5 3.4 GMS 14–16 Jan 2013 1,006 41 33 5 13 3 3 2 8 INFO GmbH 2–6 Jan 2013 1,002 38.0 31.5 4.5 14.5 6.0 3.0 2.5 6.5 Infratest dimap 8–10 Jan 2013 1,001 40 33 5 13 3 3 3 7 GMS 7–9 Jan 2013 1,007 41 33 5 13 3 3 2 8 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 7–9 Jan 2013 1,040 39 33 5 13 3 3 4 6 Infratest dimap 28 Dec 2012–2 Jan 2013 1,000 40 34 4 13 3 3 3 6 INFO GmbH 7–14 Dec 2012 1,001 38.5 33.0 3.5 12.5 4.0 4.5 4.0 5.5 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 3–5 Dec 2012 1,043 39 32 4 13 4 4 4 7 Infratest dimap 30 Nov–4 Dec 2012 1,000 40 33 3 15 3 3 3 7 GMS 28–30 Nov 2012 1,006 41 32 4 13 3 4 3 9 Infratest dimap 2–6 Nov 2012 1,003 41 34 3 13 3 3 3 7 Infratest dimap 17–19 Sep 2012 1,003 37 33 3 15 4 4 4 4 GMS 10–14 Sep 2012 1,002 38 33 5 13 5 3 3 5 Forsa 11–20 Jul 2012 1,108 38 33 4 11 4 7 3 5 YouGov 5–13 Jul 2012 1,025 31 35 4 14 5 7 4 4 Infratest dimap 14–15 May 2012 1,005 32 36 4 13 3 8 4 4 GMS 16–19 Apr 2012 1,005 37 33 3 13 3 9 2 4 Infratest dimap 20–24 Jan 2012 1,001 36 32 3 17 5 4 3 4 GMS 10–14 Jan 2012 1,003 37 33 3 18 3 3 3 4 Infratest dimap 2–4 May 2011 1,000 34 31 5 22 5 1 2 3 Infratest dimap 7–11 Jan 2010 1,000 41 29 9 11 6 – 4 12 2008 state election 27 Jan 2008 – 42.5 30.3 8.2 8.0 7.1 – 3.9 12.2

Election result

Sources

2013 Lower Saxony state election

Bron en licentie