The Australian Labor Party won the 2025 federal election in a landslide, securing 94 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Coalition won 43 seats. In the aftermath of the election, the National Party of Australia twice withdrew from its coalition agreement with the Liberal Party, most notably in January 2026 when all Nationals frontbenchers resigned following a dispute over the government's hate speech laws, describing the relationship as “untenable.”
Seat classification The Australian Electoral Commission classifies seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe based on the winning party's two-candidate-preferred vote: less than 56% is classified as marginal, 56–60% as fairly safe, and more than 60% as safe.Division Classifications , Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.
Mackerras pendulum The Mackerras pendulum, devised by Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, is a method for analysing elections in two-party, Westminster-style lower house systems such as the Australian House of Representatives. Seats held by the government, the opposition and the crossbenches are ordered by their two-candidate-preferred (2CP) margin, representing the uniform swing required for each seat to change hands. Under the assumption of a uniform swing, the pendulum can be used to estimate the number of seats likely to change hands between elections.
Pendulum (2CP) Government (94 seats)Marginal (22)BeanACTDavid SmithALP v IND0.34BullwinkelWATrish CookALP0.51FremantleWAJosh WilsonALP v IND0.69MenziesVicGabriel NgALP1.08PetrieQldEmma ComerALP1.17SolomonNTLuke GoslingALP1.31BendigoVicLisa ChestersALP v NAT1.40WillsVicPeter KhalilALP v GRN1.43FordeQldRowan HolzbergerALP1.77BanksNSWZhi SoonALP2.39DeakinVicMatt GreggALP2.82MooreWATom FrenchALP2.89MelbourneVicSarah WittyALP v GRN3.02HughesNSWDavid MoncrieffALP3.06AstonVicMary DoyleALP3.43McEwenVicRob MitchellALP4.76BonnerQldKara CookALP5.00CalwellVicBasem AbdoALP v IND5.08GilmoreNSWFiona PhillipsALP5.13ChisholmVicCarina GarlandALP5.70BlairQldShayne NeumannALP5.71DicksonQldAli FranceALP5.99Fairly safe (24)LeichhardtQldMatt SmithALP6.06WhitlamNSWCarol BerryALP6.25PearceWATracey RobertsALP6.44SturtSAClaire ClutterhamALP6.62WerriwaNSWAnne StanleyALP6.77PatersonNSWMeryl SwansonALP6.89TangneyWASam LimALP6.99DunkleyVicJodie BelyeaALP7.08BraddonTasAnne UrquhartALP7.20Eden-MonaroNSWKristy McBainALP7.21HawkeVicSam RaeALP7.63MacquarieNSWSusan TemplemanALP7.71FranklinTasJulie CollinsALP v IND7.78BassTasJess TeesdaleALP8.01CorangamiteVicLibby CokerALP8.05LingiariNTMarion ScrymgourALP8.13BrisbaneQldMadonna JarrettALP8.96McMahonNSWChris BowenALP9.02HunterNSWDaniel RepacholiALP v ONP9.04FraserVicDaniel MulinoALP v GRN9.23BennelongNSWJerome LaxaleALP9.26RobertsonNSWGordon ReidALP9.37DobellNSWEmma McBrideALP9.43CooperVicGed KearneyALP v GRN9.72Safe (48)RichmondNSWJustine ElliotALP10.00GortonVicAlice Jordan-BairdALP10.28GriffithQldRenee CoffeyALP v GRN10.57BallaratVicCatherine KingALP10.66BoothbySALouise Miller-FrostALP11.10ShortlandNSWPat ConroyALP11.51LyonsTasRebecca WhiteALP11.58MacnamaraVicJosh BurnsALP11.80ReidNSWSally SitouALP12.01ParramattaNSWAndrew CharltonALP12.55MaribyrnongVicJo BriskeyALP12.65JagajagaVicKate ThwaitesALP12.88LalorVicJoanne RyanALP13.21CorioVicRichard MarlesALP13.23CowanWAAnne AlyALP13.63GreenwayNSWMichelle RowlandALP13.76SwanWAZaneta MascarenhasALP13.99HoltVicCassandra FernandoALP14.03ScullinVicAndrew GilesALP14.29IsaacsVicMark DreyfusALP14.34LilleyQldAnika WellsALP14.52BruceVicJulian HillALP14.62MakinSATony ZappiaALP14.66GellibrandVicTim WattsALP15.10SpenceSAMatt BurnellALP15.34RankinQldJim ChalmersALP15.55MacarthurNSWMike FreelanderALP15.61BurtWAMatt KeoghALP15.71NewcastleNSWSharon ClaydonALP v GRN15.80HasluckWATania LawrenceALP15.97BartonNSWAsh AmbihaipaharALP16.00MoretonQldJulie-Ann CampbellALP16.09HindmarshSAMark ButlerALP16.35PerthWAPatrick GormanALP16.51WatsonNSWTony BurkeALP v IND16.52HothamVicClare O'NeilALP16.86GrayndlerNSWAnthony AlbaneseALP v GRN16.86BrandWAMadeleine KingALP16.92Kingsford SmithNSWMatt ThistlethwaiteALP17.19CunninghamNSWAlison ByrnesALP17.52AdelaideSASteve GeorganasALP19.07OxleyQldMilton DickALP19.19CanberraACTAlicia PayneALP v GRN19.52ChifleyNSWEd HusicALP19.83KingstonSAAmanda RishworthALP20.74SydneyNSWTanya PlibersekALP v GRN20.95BlaxlandNSWJason ClareALP21.90FennerACTAndrew LeighALP22.08 Opposition (42 seats)Marginal (18)GoldsteinVicTim WilsonLIB v IND0.08LongmanQldTerry YoungLNP0.11BerowraNSWJulian LeeserLIB1.63La TrobeVicJason WoodLIB2.06ForrestWABen SmallLIB2.24FlindersVicZoe McKenzieLIB v IND2.29BowmanQldHenry PikeLNP2.43CowperNSWPat ConaghanNAT v IND2.54LindsayNSWMelissa McIntoshLIB2.78CaseyVicAaron VioliLIB2.89FairfaxQldTed O'BrienLNP3.23WannonVicDan TehanLIB v IND3.27MitchellNSWAlex HawkeLIB3.81MonashVicMary AldredLIB4.09McPhersonQldLeon RebelloLNP4.44GreySATom VenningLIB4.64GroomQldGarth HamiltonLNP v IND5.67CapricorniaQldMichelle LandryLNP5.83Fairly safe (12)FisherQldAndrew WallaceLNP6.03HinklerQldDavid BattLNP6.26CanningWAAndrew HastieLIB6.55FaddenQldCameron CaldwellLNP6.88CookNSWSimon KennedyLIB7.19Wide BayQldLlew O'BrienLNP7.63WrightQldScott BuchholzLNP7.98HumeNSWAngus TaylorLIB8.06MoncrieffQldAngie BellLNP8.80PageNSWKevin HoganNAT9.29LyneNSWAlison PenfoldNAT9.78Safe (12)DurackWAMelissa PriceLIB10.15FlynnQldColin BoyceLNP10.24DawsonQldAndrew WillcoxLNP11.83RiverinaNSWMichael McCormackNAT12.62ParkesNSWJamie ChaffeyNAT12.97BarkerSATony PasinLIB12.98O'ConnorWARick WilsonLIB13.28HerbertQldPhillip ThompsonLNP13.41NichollsVicSam BirrellNAT14.38MalleeVicAnne WebsterNAT19.04GippslandVicDarren ChesterNAT19.36MaranoaQldDavid LittleproudLNP v ONP20.10 Crossbench (14 seats)Marginal (6)BradfieldNSWNicolette BoeleIND v LIB0.01KooyongVicMonique RyanIND v LIB0.67FowlerNSWDai LeIND v ALP2.68RyanQldElizabeth Watson-BrownGRN v LNP3.27CurtinWAKate ChaneyIND v LIB3.27MackellarNSWSophie ScampsIND v LIB5.66Fairly safe (3)CalareNSWAndrew GeeIND v NAT6.78FarrerNSWDavid FarleyONP v IND (b/e)7.72WentworthNSWAllegra Spender (CSA) IND v LIB8.34IndiVicHelen HainesIND v LIB8.64Safe (5)WarringahNSWZali Steggall (CSA) IND v LIB11.20MayoSARebekha SharkieCA v ALP14.89KennedyQldBob KatterKAP v LNP15.75New EnglandNSWBarnaby Joyce (ONP)NAT17.06ClarkTasAndrew WilkieIND v ALP20.38
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