A by-election was held on 2 May 2026 to elect the member of parliament for the district of Nepean in the Victorian Legislative Assembly. The election was triggered by the resignation of Sam Groth, a Liberal MP first elected at the 2022 state election.
Eight candidates contested the by-election. The Liberal Party preselected Anthony Marsh, mayor of Mornington Peninsula Shire, while One Nation chose small business owner Darren Hercus as their candidate, and broadcaster Tracee Hutchison stood as an independent candidate. The Labor Party did not contest.
Marsh won the by-election, as per usual in a seat normally considered safe for the Liberal Party. Despite a decrease in the party's primary vote, Marsh's margin increased following the distribution of preferences, where he received 63 per cent of the vote on the final count. Following a strong performance for One Nation in South Australia, Hercus placed second with 24.5 per cent of the primary vote, polling best in working-class areas such as Dromana and Rosebud. However, in the distribution of preferences, he fell behind Hutchison. Hutchison had received 21 per cent of the primary vote but overtook Hercus after preferences of the voters for the Greens candidate, Sianan Healy, were distributed.
Background The electoral district of Nepean, formerly known as Dromana, covers the southernmost end of the Mornington Peninsula, from Safety Beach to Portsea. Usually considered a safe Liberal seat, Nepean was won by Labor for only the second time in its history at the 2018 Victorian state election, when Chris Brayne won the seat. As of the 2021 census, the electorate of Nepean was older, less ethnically diverse, and poorer than the state average. Following a boundary redistribution, Nepean had a notional margin of 0.7 percent for Labor. However, Liberal candidate Sam Groth defeated Brayne at the 2022 Victorian state election, with a swing of 7.1 percent towards the Liberal Party. Groth was a former professional tennis player, subsequently a sports commentator, and had lived in Rye for a number of years prior to the 2022 election. The Liberals performed strongly in wealthier communities, receiving over two-thirds of the two-party-preferred vote in the Portsea and Sorrento polling booths, while Labor performed better in the towns of Dromana, Rosebud, and McCrae, which are less well-off.
At the 2025 federal election, the Liberal-held Division of Flinders had a competitive performance from independent Ben Smith, who polled 47.7 per cent of the two-candidate-preferred vote. Smith carried most polling booths in the western portion of Flinders, which overlaps with the state Nepean district.
On 5 January 2026, Groth announced that he would not seek re-election at the upcoming 2026 Victorian state election, citing "public pressure placed on my family", some of which he stated had come from within the Liberal Party. Groth had previously sued The Herald and Weekly Times publishing company for defamation, over their newspapers' fostering the allegation that he had started a relationship with his wife before she had reached the age of consent. The Herald Sun apologised for these claims in late 2025, and lawyers for both Groth and his wife have stated that the allegation is false. On 4 February, the office of Victorian Liberal Party leader Jess Wilson confirmed that Groth intended to resign from the Victorian Parliament, triggering a by-election in the electoral district of Nepean. Groth resigned from parliament on 13 February 2026.
The by-election was held in close proximity to the Victorian state election, which was scheduled for November 2026. It was also preceded by the 2026 South Australian state election, held six weeks prior, at which One Nation polled 23 per cent of the statewide primary vote. Alongside the Farrer by-election, held a week later, the Nepean by-election was considered a test for One Nation's electoral prospects across Australia, and specifically in advance of the Victorian state election.
Previous result
Key dates Sam Groth resigned from Parliament on 13 February 2026, with the writ issued by the Speaker on 13 March. The timeline for the by-election is as follows: Friday 13 March − Speaker issues writ Monday 16 March − Candidate nominations open Friday 20 March, 8pm − Electoral roll closes Thursday 9 April, 12pm − Candidate nominations close for registered party candidates Friday 10 April, 12pm − Candidate nominations close for independent candidates Wednesday 22 April − Early voting begins Saturday 2 May − Election day Friday 8 May − Last day for votes to be admitted to count On or before Saturday 23 May − Return of the writ
On 21 April, the day before early voting began, a low-sensory voting space was open from 10am to 4pm, to provide a low-stimuli environment for neurodivergent voters.
Candidates
Candidates are listed below in ballot paper order: Party Candidate Background Darren Hercus Small business owner Reade Smith Former mayor of Mornington Peninsula Shire Sianan Healy Women's health researcher Anthony Marsh Mayor of Mornington Peninsula Shire Milton Wilde Former police officer, candidate at 2025 federal election Peter Angelico Entrepreneur and former Liberal Party member Tracee Hutchison Broadcaster and journalist Renee Thompson
According to The Guardian, The Age, and the Mornington Peninsula News Group, five candidates were nominated for Liberal Party preselection. These were Anthony Marsh, David Burgess, Briony Camp, Nathan Conroy, and Bree Ambry. Marsh, the mayor of Mornington Peninsula Shire, was given special permission by the Liberal Party state executive to stand as a candidate, as he had only joined the party on 10 February 2026. Burgess, Camp, and Conroy had previously unsuccessfully stood for the Liberal Party in general elections—Burgess for the Legislative Council, Camp in the district of Hastings, and Conroy twice for the federal division of Dunkley. Ambry is a project manager with Nepean Health. The Liberal candidate for the by-election was decided by a combined vote of the eighteen members of the state executive and six members of the branch executive in Nepean, rather than by a vote of rank-and-file branch members. Marsh was ultimately the successful candidate, being preselected on 24 February 2026. According to Mornington Peninsula News Group, in the first round of preselection voting, Marsh received ten votes, Camp four, Conroy three, and Burgess two.
The Labor Party did not stand a candidate in the by-election.
Darren Hercus, who owns a fabrication company in Safety Beach, was announced as the One Nation candidate on 1 March. According to two former members of One Nation, Hercus was selected directly by Warren Pickering, the state president of One Nation. However, Hercus states that he was chosen by a vote of the membership.
Tracee Hutchison, a broadcaster and journalist from Rosebud, announced her candidacy for the by-election on 8 March as an independent. Hutchison is endorsed by the Independents for Mornington Peninsula group. Hutchison has opposed cuts by the Mornington Peninsula shire to programs relating to the arts, cultural heritage, and First Nations people, as well as the council's rescinding of a climate emergency declaration.
The Greens candidate for Nepean was Sianan Healy, a women's health researcher.
Peter Angelico, an entrepreneur and former Liberal Party member of two decades, was the endorsed Libertarian Party candidate for Nepean.
Reade Smith, a former councillor and mayor at Mornington Peninsula Shire, was the candidate for Affordable Housing Now – Sustainable Australia Party. Smith was a councillor from 2000 to 2012, and mayor in 2005.
End Mass Immigration – Reform AU stood Milton Wilde, a Croydon-based former police officer. Wilde previously stood at the 2025 federal election for the Trumpet of Patriots party.
Renee Thompson was the candidate for the Legalise Cannabis Party.
Campaign
Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh and party leader Jess Wilson announced on 14 March that the party would spend $340 million on rebuilding the Rosebud Hospital if elected to government, reiterating a promise made by Sam Groth at the 2022 state election. Both One Nation and Hutchison also expressed their support for a rebuild of the hospital, with One Nation supporting a public–private partnership to fund construction works.
Sianan Healy, the Greens candidate, launched her campaign for the by-election in Blairgowrie on 29 March.
Two sets of leaflets authorised by the Liberal Party were distributed in early April, the first arguing that One Nation was inexperienced and untested, and the second describing independent Tracee Hutchison as "Jacinta Allan's Secret Nepean Candidate", citing Hutchison's interest in standing for the Labor Party at the 2019 federal election, as well as her criticism of Australia Day and the Australian flag. Hercus, the One Nation candidate, described the leaflet directed at his party as an "act of desperation", while Hutchison stated the material directed against her was "lazy and dishonest".
The High Court of Australia's ruling in Hopper v Victoria, announced on 15 April, struck down a large portion of Victoria's laws governing political donations. While political leaders in the state, including premier Allan and shadow attorney-general James Newbury, immediately called for reforms to introduce regulations regarding political donations within the limits of the court's ruling, the Victorian Parliament was not scheduled to sit before 5 May. A legislative proposal on Victoria's political donation laws was put forward by the Allan government on 2 June, a month after the Nepean by-election.
The Age reported on 18 April that Hercus had been told by Pickering to use a personal bank account for accepting campaign donations. Hercus stated to the paper that he did not use a personal account for political expenses and had no knowledge of how his donations were being managed. If Hercus had used a personal account to accept donations, it would have violated Victorian campaign expenditure laws in place prior to Hopper v Victoria. In a press conference on the same day, federal leader Pauline Hanson referred to the report as "false allegations". On 19 April, ABC News reported that Marsh was being investigated for unauthorised roadworks, following the release of a campaign video where he, with Wilson, had filled a Dromana pothole to highlight a lack of funding for road repairs. An internal committee within One Nation that had been tasked with running the party's Nepean campaign had dissolved by late April, with three of its seven members leaving the party.
The sole candidates' debate for the by-election was held on 23 April. Hutchison, Healy, Angelico, and Smith attended. Both Hercus and Marsh had been slated to attend, but Hercus withdrew on 20 April, citing campaign commitments. Marsh chose not to attend as a result of Hercus's withdrawal.
Wilson, the leader of the Liberal Party, campaigned heavily in the Nepean district during the by-election. She was present at pre-polling booths for most days of early voting to hand out how-to-vote cards for the party. In the final days of the Nepean campaign, she campaigned specifically on repealing Victoria's Treaty with Indigenous peoples.
How-to-vote cards The Liberal Party and One Nation both listed each other as third preferences on their how-to-vote cards, preceded by the Libertarian Party as second preference.
The Libertarian Party preferenced One Nation second and Liberal third, with Hutchison last. End Mass Immigration – Reform AU did not register a how-to-vote card with the Victorian Electoral Commission.
Hutchison, Legalise Cannabis, and Sustainable Australia issued open how-to-vote cards with no preference recommendations. The Greens recommended a second preference for Hutchison and a fourth preference for the Liberal Party.
Results