Although Alberta has a presence in many industries such as agriculture, forestry, education, tourism, finance, and manufacturing, the politics and culture of the province have been closely tied to the production of fossil energy since the 1940s. Alberta—with an estimated 1.4 billion cubic metres of unconventional oil resource in the bituminous oil sands—leads Canada as an oil producer.
Alberta's GDP in 2018 was CDN$338.2 billion. In 2018, Alberta's energy sector contributed over $71.5 billion to Canada's nominal gross domestic product. According to Statistics Canada, in May 2018, the oil and gas extraction industry reached its highest proportion of Canada's national GDP since 1985, exceeding 7% and "surpass[ing] banking and insurance" with extraction of non-conventional oil from the oilsands reaching an "impressive", all-time high in May 2018. With conventional oil extraction "climbed up to the highs from 2007", the demand for Canadian oil was strong in May.
From 1990 to 2003, Alberta's economy grew by 57% compared to 43% for all of Canada—the strongest economic growth of any region in Canada. In 2006 Alberta's per capita GDP was higher than all US states, and one of the highest figures in the world. In 2006, the deviation from the national average was the largest for any province in Canadian history. Alberta's per capita GDP in 2007 was by far the highest of any province in Canada at C$74,825 (approx. US$75,000). Alberta's per capita GDP in 2007 was 61% higher than the Canadian average of C$46,441 and more than twice that of all the Maritime provinces. From 2004 to 2014 Alberta's "exports of commodities rose 91%, reaching $121 billion in 2014" and 500,000 new jobs were created. In 2014, Alberta's real GDP by expenditure grew by 4.8%, the strongest growth rate among the provinces." In 2017, Alberta's real per capita GDP—the economic output per person—was $71,092, compared to the Canadian average of $47,417. In 2016, Alberta's A grade on its income per capita was based on the fact that it was almost "identical" to that of the "top peer country"—Ireland.
The energy industry provided 7.7% of all jobs in Alberta in 2013, and 140,300 jobs representing 6.1% of total employment of 2,286,900 in Alberta in 2017. The unemployment rate in Alberta peaked in November 2016 at 9.1%. Its lowest point in a ten-year period from July 2009 to July 2019, was in September 2013 at 4.3%. The unemployment rate in the spring of 2019 in Alberta was 6.7% with 21,000 jobs added in April. By July 2019, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate had increased to 7.0%.
By August 2019, the employment number in Alberta was 2,344,000, following the loss of 14,000 full-time jobs in July, which represented the "largest decline" in Canada according to Statistics Canada.
Beginning in June 2014, the record high volume of worldwide oil inventories in storage—referred to as a global oil glut—caused crude oil prices to collapse at near ten-year low prices. By 2016 West Texas Intermediate (WTI)—the benchmark light, sweet crude oil—reached its lowest price in ten years—US$26.55. In 2012 the price of WTI had reached US$125 and in 2014 the price was $100. By February 2016 the price of Western Canadian Select WCS—the Alberta benchmark heavy crude oil—was US$14.10—the cheapest oil in the world. Alberta boom years from 2010 to 2014 ended with a "long and deep" recession that began in 2014, driven by low commodity pricing ended in 2017. By 2019—five years later—Alberta was still in recovery. Overall, there were approximately 35,000 jobs lost in mining, oil and gas alone. Since 2014, sectors that offered high-wage employment of $30 and above, saw about 100,000 jobs disappear—"construction (down more than 45,000 jobs), mining, oil and gas (down nearly 35,000), and professional services (down 18,000)," according to the economist, Trevor Tombe. There was a decrease in wages, in the number of jobs, and in the number of hours worked. The total loss of incomes from "workers, business, and government" amounted to about 20 percent or about CDN$75 billion less per year. Since 2011, prices have increased in Alberta by 18%. However, a typical worker in Alberta still earns more than a typical worker in all the other provinces and territories.
By March 2016, Alberta lost over 100,000 jobs in the oil patch. In spite of the surplus with the low price of WCS in 2015—99% of Canada's oil exports went to the United States and in 2015 Canada was still their largest exporter of total petroleum—3,789 thousand bpd in September—3,401 thousand bpd in October up from 3,026 thousand bpd in September 2014. By April 2019, two of the major oil companies, still had thousands of workers—Suncor had about 12,500 employees and Canadian Natural Resources had about 10,000 full-time employees.
Alberta has the "lowest taxes overall of any province or territory" in Canada, due in part to having high resource tax revenues. However, overall tax revenues from oil royalties and other non-renewable sources has fallen steeply along with the drop in global oil prices. For example, in 2013, oil tax revenues brought in 9.58 billion, or 21% of the total Provincial budget, whereas in 2018 it had fallen to just 5.43 billion, or 11% of the Provincial budget.
In the spring of 2020, Alberta's economy suffered from the economic fallout of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war."
__TOC__
Data
YearNominal GDP (in bil. CA-Dollar)GDP per capita (in CA-Dollar)Unemployment (in %)2019334.577,2396.8%2018334.378,3116.9%201732877,7658.7%2016314.675,4478.6%2015326.579,3244.6%2014338.383,9464.7%2013319.581,4954.5%2012302.178,9795.0%2011290.577,3755.9%2010272.273,5236.6%2009258.971,1564.9%2008273.577,0683.7%200727077,7483.6%2006264.878,5333.8%2005248.675,8674.5%2004237.774,0644.9%2003224.771,2185.4%2002216.870,1144.9%2001211.669,8825.2%2000207.869,8605.0%199919666,9845.9%1998193.267,5695.3%1997184.365,8326.4%
Current overview According to ATB Financial's Vice President and Chief Economist—Todd Hirsch, who spoke during an April 2, 2020, webinar hosted by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta and its "economic fallout will permanently reshape our economy." Hirsch said that he expects that the resulting contraction in Alberta's economy will be the "worst...Alberta has ever seen."
The global price of oil decreased dramatically because of the combination of COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war. In March 2020, the United States benchmark crude oil EWest Texas Intermediate (WTI)—upon which Alberta's benchmark crude oil Western Canadian Select (WCS) price is based—dropped to an historical below of US$20 a barrel. The price of WCS bitumen-blend crude was US$3.82 per barrel by the end of March. In 2018, the low price of heavy oil negatively impacted Alberta's economic growth.
In November 2018, the price of Western Canadian Select (WCS), the benchmark for Canadian heavy crude, hit its record low of less than US$14 a barrel, as a "surge of production met limited pipeline space causing bottlenecks." Previously, from 2008 through 2018, WCS had sold at an average discount of US$17 against West Texas Intermediate (WTI)—the U.S. crude oil benchmark, but by the fall of 2018, the differential between WCS and WTI reached a record of over US$50 per barrel. In response, then Premier Rachel Notley made a December 2 announcement of a mandatory cut of 8.7% in Alberta's oil production. By December 12, after the announcement of the government's "mandated oil output curtailment", the price of WCS rose c. 70% to c. US$41 a barrel with the WTI differential falling from US50 to c. US$11., according to the Financial Post. The WCS price rose to US$28.60 by January 2019, as the international price of oil had begun to recover from the December "sharp downturn" caused by the ongoing China–U.S. trade war In March 2019, the differential of WTI over WCS decreased to $US9.94 as the price of WTI dropped to US$58.15 a barrel, which is 7.5% lower than it was in March 2018, while the price of WCS increased to US$48.21 a barrel which is 35.7% higher than in March 2018. According to TD Economics' September 2019 report, the government's "mandated oil output curtailment", has resulted in a sustained rebound in WCS prices. However, investment and spending were low in the province. The loss of 14, 000 of the full-time jobs out of 2,344,000 in Alberta in July 2019, represented the "largest decline" in employment in Canada for that month, according to Statistics Canada.
In 1985, Alberta's energy industry accounted for 36.1% of the provinces $66.8 billion GDP. In 2006, the mining, oil and gas extraction industry accounted for 29.1% of GDP; by 2012 it was 23.3%; in 2013, it was 24.6% of Alberta's $331.9 billion GDP, and in 2016, the mining, oil and gas extraction industry accounted for about 27.9% of Alberta's GDP.
By comparison, "In 2017, the federal, provincial and territorial governments spent some $724 billion on programs and more than $58 billion on interest payments on their public debt, which, combined, amounted to about 36 percent of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP). Their combined borrowing that year was $27 billion, and their net financial debt at year-end stood at around $1.2 trillion, about 54 percent of GDP."
In his July 2019 CBC News article, economist Trevor Tombe said that prior to the 2014 recession, Albertans had experienced boom years from 2010 to 2014, with workers earnings reaching exceptional highs. The recession, which "ended over two years ago" in 2017, was "long and deep". By 2019—five years later—the province was still in recovery. Overall, there were approximately 35,000 jobs lost in mining, oil and gas alone. By 2019, the slow recovery and low earnings growth have resulted in workers getting "fewer hours, fewer jobs and, in some cases, lower wages". Tombe said that from 2014 to 2016, Alberta earned CDN$75 billion less per year with the "total incomes of workers, business, and government combined [falling] by nearly 20 per cent". Tombes said that relative to Alberta's "growth path prior to the recession" Alberta's economy is "down $100 billion per year", compared to what was anticipated. Tombes said that the "boom years that ended in 2014 were the outliers" and the lower earnings in 2019 reflect a "natural adjustment that's moving Alberta to a more normal and balanced labour market." While earnings are lower, because of inflation, prices have increased in Alberta by 18% since 2011. "The $1,183 per week a typical worker earns today goes about as far as $1,000 did nearly a decade ago.", according to Tombe. In spite of the typical worker in Alberta earns $1,183 per week compared to Saskatchewan, where the typical worker earns $1,070 per week. The weekly income a typical worker in all the other Canadian provinces and territories is less than that.
Since 2014, sectors that offered high-wage employment of $30 and above, saw about 100,000 jobs disappear—"construction (down more than 45,000 jobs), mining, oil and gas (down nearly 35,000), and professional services (down 18,000)."
Deficit Alberta's net debt was $27.5 billion by March 2019, which represents the end of the 2018-19 fiscal year (FY). By November 2018, Alberta's government expenditures were $55 billion while the revenue was about $48 billion, according to a report by the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy (SPP) economist, Trevor Tombe. Capital investment amounted to $4.3 billion. The provincial government employs more than "210,000 full-time equivalent workers across hundreds of departments, boards and other entities." Tombe, cited a $8.3 billion deficit in his November report, prior to the release in February 2019 of the corrected deficit figures, which was "$1.9 billion less in 2018-19 than originally expected", —$6.9-billion deficit instead of the original $8.8-billion".